Forex Analysis Euro vs Dollar 1 Sep 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

With the UK market closed yesterday for a national holiday, trading volumes in the euro vs dollar were relatively thin, and as a result we saw a volatile day of forex trading on little news, with the candle ending as a doji, and perhaps more significantly and ‘inside day’ or the Japanese term ‘harami’. This is often the first signal that a reversal is likely, although given the fact that we are in effect consolidating sideways, the signal probably has less weight on this occasion. Indeed the low of yesterday’s candle seemed to find support from the 14 day moving average, with the close of the trading session balanced on the 9 day, both of which suggest that the euro vs dollar will continue to edge higher in trading once again.  The key to the medium term remains the new resistance level now in place at 1.4450, and only a break and hold above here will signal a breakout and sustained move higher.  With all three moving averages providing solid support my trading suggestion for today is to attempt small long positions intra day, but only as far as the initial target outlined above. Should we subsequently clear this level in due course then longer term trend trades may well profit from the move.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The new month of fundamental news for Europe kicks off with German Retail Sales forecast to show an improvement from last time at -1.3% to a positive 0.7%, and if met will once again confirm that the recession is beginning to flatten as the long slow recovery begins. This is followed later in the morning with the German Unemployment change which is also expected to provide further good news for Europe with a forecast of +33k against a previous of -6k, although this ‘good news story’ may be counterbalanced by the Unemployment Rate for Europe which is expected to show an increase once again from 9.4% last time to 9.5% today, although being a lagging indicator this fundamental news may not surprise the forex markets.

Two items of fundamental news dominate the US economic calendar this afternoon with ISM Manufacturing and Pending Home Sales, the first of which is expected to nudge over the psychologically important 50 level, indicating an economy in contraction to one in expansion, with a figure of 50.6 forecast against a previous of 48.9, but once again ( as in Europe) this good news may be balanced by Pending Home Sales which are forecast at half last time at 1.7% against a previous of 3.6%, but given we are still in the summer, this number may not concern the forex markets unduly. The day ends with several minor news items all of which are covered in more detail on the econimic calendar.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.

Euro vs Dollar - Daily Forex Analysis 31st August 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

The euro vs dollar continues to struggle to break above the 1.44 technical level on the daily forex chart, which increasingly seem to be becoming a key level for the forex pair. Following Thursday’s strong move higher, technical view was that this should follow through on Friday, but with a return of some limited US dollar strength, the pair fell back in later forex trading markets to close the session and the week with a down candle, with the low of the day finding some support from the 9 day moving average. With seven failed attempts to clear this level, the resistance now building is becoming increasingly significant, and a barrier to any progress higher, however, should we see a break and hold above this level in due course, then this will provide a solid platform to any move higher in due course.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There is very little in the way of significant fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe today, with only Italian Retail Sales, Italian Preliminary CPI and the European CPI Flash estimates reporting. Of these the most important is the last, which measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and is therefore an excellent guide to the current inflationary or deflationary picture in Europe. The forecast for today is for -o.4% against a previous of -0.7% so a slightly better picture than last time should this number be correct. For the US meanwhile, the only fundamental news item due out is the Chicago PMI data, which if the forecast is correct, shows an economy inching its way out of the depths of recession.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.

Forex Analysis for Euro vs Dollar 26 Aug 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

Once again the euro vs dollar promised much but delivered little in yesterday’s forex analysis, with the threatened breakout in early trading failing to materialise, and the currency pair falling back later in the session to end the day with a weak shooting star candle formation.  With a small body and deep upper wick, the candle suggests a bearish tone to today’s trading in the euro vs dollar, as the pair once again consolidates in this congested area immediately above all three moving averages. Like many other markets , the currency markets too is suffering from thin trading volumes, lack of any real news, and summer holidays in full swing, are all adding to the sideways movements of  which the euro vs dollar is no exception. Until we see a break out above the new resistance level at 1.44, then we can assume that the pair will continue to trade in this range until normal market volumes return in September. The only way to trade at present is on an intra day basis aiming at small profit targets.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

This morning’s fundamental news on the economic calendar started early with the release of the German Import prices data which came in worse than expected at -0.9% against a forecast of -0.7%, a relatively minor piece of news, but one which is followed by the more significant German IFO Business Climate data, a number which will certainly have an impact when released. The forecast for today is 89.1 against a previous of 87.3. The IFO data is highly regarded due to it’s large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions, and as a result tends to have a significant impact on the forex market when released, as it generally considered a leading indicator of the economy in Europe. The figures are derived from a  survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months.

The focus of attention for forex traders then shifts to the US where we have two key numbers this afternoon, namely Core Durable Goods ( and Durable Goods which is less significant) followed 90 minutes later by New Home Sales. The first of these is expected to come in worse than last time at 1.0% against a previous of  1.6%, whilst new home sales are expected to show a modest improvement from 384,000 to 393,000. Both numbers will provide some interesting  fundamental forex analysis for forex traders and analysts. Shortly after this we have the Crude Oil Inventories, but as always these will tend to have more of an impact on the Canadian Dollar owing to Canada’s pre-eminence in the energy complex, and these numbers will be available on the crude oil trading site soon as they are available. The usd to cad par will no doubt react to these figures on release which are forecast at -2.1M  a huge change from last week’s -8.4M.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.