Euro vs Dollar Chart 20th May 2009

Euro vs Dollar Chart 20th May 2009

Yesterday’s wide spread up bar added to Monday’s reversal taking the euro dollar back up to the consolidation region between 1.36 and 1.37 and closing once again above all three moving averages.  As I have outlined several times before on this commentary for the euro dollar, unless and until we see a break above the 1.3750 price point then it is difficult to say whether this region will provide strong resistance to a move higher or support once penetrated to an attack on the 1.40 price level.  With all three moving averages pointing higher and with this morning’s price action suggesting that the bulls are regaining the upper hand this now seems possible as the likely outcome provided prices do not stall once again at 1.37.  My trading suggestion for today is therefore to look for small long trades on an intra day basis, looking to build on these in the medium term should we break above 1.3750.

Fundamental news on the economic calendar for the euro dollar began this morning with German PPI data coming in worse than expected at -1.4% against a forecast of 0.2% confirming that the German industrial machine is in dire straits with producer prices falling at their fastest rate in almost 22 years on the back of falling energy costs and demand.  Later in the US we have release of the FOMC minutes and testimony from Treasury Secretary Geithner before the Senate on the Government’s TARP programme.  Finally as it is Wednesday, we have the weekly crude oil inventories which whilst being a US indicator will generally have more of an impact on the Canadian Dollar.  The forecast is for a fall in the stockpile.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.