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Lower EURO Looks the Safer Bet

This week’s highlight obviously will be Friday’s employment situation report. Before then, traders will get their chances to tweak their forecasts with ADP employment on Wednesday and jobless claims Thursday. Current estimates puts the print just over an unimpressive +50k.

The market continues to wait for any positive news about Greece, again there was little produced over the weekend. The Greek cabinet approved new budget cuts, but the overall picture is one of a ‘failing program’. Greece’s GDP growth and budget deficit targets for 2011 and 2012 are significantly above estimates produced only three months ago. With the economy contracting close to 6% and protests increasing, the further budget and forecast downgrades likely challenge the credibility of Greece’s ability to meet even these new targets.

Greece is not the only challenge this week. Trichet Chairs his final rate policy meeting. Is it a surprise cut we can expect or the usual road sign policy change? European policy makers prefer to be more transparent, they do not even like surprising themselves! Ben gets to testify midweek, before the ‘holy grail’ of data, NFP is to be released on Friday. He is expected to emphasize the economic downside risks and that all policy options remain on the table. We can only guess what NFP will give us, for such a large country, it always surprises!

Roundup of what to expect this week plus summary of last week’s price action across related markets. As forex traders we need to expand our horizons by looking at related markets such as oil, gold, silver, bonds & equities so we can judge risk tolerance & see where the money is flowing.