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Forex Strategy – Euro vs Dollar 15th April 2009

Euro Dollar Charts - 15th April 2009

With the huge amount of fundamental news on the economic calendar today, most of which is in the US this afternoon, we could see a relatively narrow trading range this morning until the data begins to flow.  I have covered all the currency market news on the euro to dollar site and there are significant items, not least the Treasury Currency Report which could move the market dramatically late in the trading day.

Yesterday’s wide spread down bar added to the short term bearish momentum and I hope you took my suggestion to look for short positions intra day.  The bar closed below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages and with the imminent construction of a pennant or flag we could be seeing the start of a period of sideways consolidation before a further explosive breakout.   The key to the direction of any break will largely depend on whether the support platform now being created in the current flag at 1.31 holds firm, and if not we could see a significant fall to retest support at the 1.2875 region which seems the more likely at present.  If prices manage to break through the 40 day moving average in the short term then this can only add weight to this bearish view.    My trading suggestion for today given both the technical and fundamental issues, is to wait and sit on the sidelines, and certainly until after most of the key fundamental data has been released and be aware that the Treasury Report is due out sometime this evening – probably after the London close.  I will twitter the details as soon as I have them.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.