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Forex Market Analysis – Euro vs Dollar 31st August 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

The euro vs dollar continues to struggle to break above the 1.44 technical level on the daily forex chart, which increasingly seem to be becoming a key level for the forex pair. Following Thursday’s strong move higher, technical view was that this should follow through on Friday, but with a return of some limited US dollar strength, the pair fell back in later forex trading markets to close the session and the week with a down candle, with the low of the day finding some support from the 9 day moving average. With seven failed attempts to clear this level, the resistance now building is becoming increasingly significant, and a barrier to any progress higher, however, should we see a break and hold above this level in due course, then this will provide a solid platform to any move higher in due course.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

There is very little in the way of significant fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe today, with only Italian Retail Sales, Italian Preliminary CPI and the European CPI Flash estimates reporting. Of these the most important is the last, which measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and is therefore an excellent guide to the current inflationary or deflationary picture in Europe. The forecast for today is for -o.4% against a previous of -0.7% so a slightly better picture than last time should this number be correct. For the US meanwhile, the only fundamental news item due out is the Chicago PMI data, which if the forecast is correct, shows an economy inching its way out of the depths of recession.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.