Euro vs Dollar Chart 25 Nov 2009

Euro vs Dollar Chart 25 Nov 2009

As I said in yesterday’s post, you must be patient in trading, and if so, then you will now be rewarded as the long awaited break finally arrived with the euro dollar finally breaking out of the pennant pattern in dramatic fashion with a wide spread up candle which breached the 1.5050 price level with ease and continued higher throughout the currency trading session.  With the breakout now complete we can expect to see the euro dollar pair continue upwards for some time with the next target being 1.52 and then on towards the 1.55 price level which we may achieve by the end of the year. My feeling was that the breakout would occur to the upside ( as I have said several times in this market commentary over the last few days) so it is always nice to be proved right!  Should we see any pullback either today or tomorrow, then these should be seen as excellent buying opportunities as we can now expect to see the euro  dollar surge higher as the US dollar continues its longer term decline.  This decline was given a shove by the FED who parted with convention in comenting in the recent minutes to an “orderly” decline for the USD.  In battle there is no such thing as an “orderly” retreat – it’s usually a rout which is what we witnessed estereday.  What is also interesting is the FED actually passing any direct comments relating to the dollar as this is usually the preserve of the Treasury Department – all very strange but then coming after the recent bilateral meeting in China who knows what murky deals have been struck!!  The only word of caution for today is that the US is closed for Thanksgiving celebrations and as such we may see some volatile and strange price moves today as the market trades on thin volumes, and indeed this may continue into tomorrow as many traders take an extended holiday in the US until Monday.

With the Thanksgiving holiday in the US and only second tier fundamental news items in Europe expect thin trading volumes which will either lead to a quiet session following yesterday’s fireworks or a series of random price moves.

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Support & Resistance for Euro Dollar :

S1:  1.5011    R1:  1.5193

S2:  1.4896    R2:  1.5260

S3:  1.4829    R3:  1.5375