EUR/USD - Euro vs Dollar Daily Currency Rate Chart 29th June 2009

With all the major fundamental news items on the economic calendar coming at the end of a holiday shortened trading week (4th of July on Friday) the technical picture is one of further sideways consolidation as the euro vs dollar waits for the inevitable and explosive breakout.  Friday’s candle merely reinforced this picture ending the session as a mildly bearish candle with a deep upper wick but closing above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages which are now bunched.   The high of the day was well constrained within the pennant pattern envelope which is now forming a point towards the 1.4 price region.  The combination of ECB news on Wednesday, coupled with ADP the same day and followed on Thursday by the NFP may well prove to be trigger needed to create the volatility and momentum for this pair.  For any sustained move higher (which seems likely at present) we need to see a break and hold above the 1.43 price point and preferably on the week.  With price action today likely to be desultory my trading recommendation is to stand aside.

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