Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 29th July 2009

Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 29th July 2009

Yesterday’s wide spread down bar was perhaps the first sign that the euro vs dollar has started to capitulate at this trading level, having failed to breach the 1.43 price handle for the seventh consecutive day. An early attempt to breach this level in the early morning trading was once again flattened as the US markets opened, closing the session below the 9 day moving average but finding some support from the 14 day average immediately below. From a technical perspective we have a clear bearish engulfing signal which would suggest weakness in the daily chart. However before we assume that the currency pair have turned, and finally given up on any move higher, we need to see this signal confirmed in the price action later this week, and given the strength of the consolidation now in place, I would suggest that we wait until prices close well below the 1.38 region, before considering any longer term trend trading. In addition we need to see all three moving averages pointing sharply lower and adding their own pressure to any move back down, before we can be certain. In contrast of course, should yesterday’s signal fail to be validated, then we could see a further period of sideways consolidation at this level once again, with only a break and hold above the 1.43 level finally confirming any breakout to the upside.

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