Euro vs Dollar - Euro vs USD Daily Forex Chart 28th May 2009

Euro vs Dollar – Euro vs USD Daily Forex Chart 28th May 2009

From a technical perspective the euro vs dollar pair is at a particularly interesting point for a number of reasons.  Firstly the 1.40 region appears to be providing stiffer resistance to a move higher than at first expected.  Secondly Monday, and more particularly, Tuesday “hanging men” candles provided us with a warning signal that the bull rally of last week was running out of steam and indeed this was duly confirmed in yesterday’s trading session which ended the day on a wide spread down bar confirming the weakness seen in both these candles.  However, before assuming that we are witnessing a major reversal we need to wait for prices to break below the 1.36 region which is now providing a strong support platform for any reversal lower, and in addition for prices to hold below the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  If neither of these occur then we can assume that this simply a temporary reversal and that the bullish momentum will continue for the euro vs dollar in due course.   This morning’s price action has done little to confirm the situation one way or the other, so far creating an indecisive doji balancing precariously on the edge of the 9 day moving average at 1.3855.   With major releases of fundamental news on the economic calendar due out shortly in the US we will no doubt see a sharp move in the US dollar particularly if investors move back into equities on the strength of any of the data, particularly that from the Core Durable Good orders.    With a national holiday in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong today and tomorrow we also have the spectre of lower than usual trading volumes in a week which has already been affected by other holidays, so any analysis of the daily chart must take this into account.  My trading suggestion is ideally to wait for this week’s close and for any longer term position trading we now need to see a break and hold above the 1.4015 region.

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