Eur vs USD - Daily FX Chart 10th June 2009

Eur vs USD - Daily FX Chart 10th June 2009

Yesterday’s wide spread up bar in the euro vs dollar daily chart provided a modicum of bullish sentiment for the Euro, closing the day marginally above the 14 day moving average and slightly below the 9 day moving average, largely as a result of further dollar weakness in the afternoon currency trading session.  Both Monday and Tuesday’s candles are now characterized by deep lower shadows indicative of a refusal by prices to move lower, with any selling pressure or pullback immediately being seen as an opportunity for buying, and the key for the next few days will be whether the pair can break and hold above the resistance now in place just below 1.43.  If this occurs then we could see a sustained move higher supported by further dollar weakness.

However, the fundamental picture is at best confusing, and the crux of investor sentiment with regard to the US dollar, hinges around the likelihood, or otherwise, of interest rates rising in the short term or whether this decision will be deferred to the longer term.   The NFP data of Friday suggested that this would happen in the near term with a resultant return to strength of the US dollar, but in the last few days this idea appears to have been discounted by many analysts and economists.    From an intra day trading perspective these are tricky times at the moment and my suggestion is to wait, and should the break outlined above occur, then to trade this trend once the 1.43 price level has been cleared.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.