Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 9th October 2009

Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 8th October 2009

The euro vs dollar pair eased higher once again and the move was much as expected following the decision and statement from the ECB, which provided little in the way of news or excitement for the markets which had already factored the decision in to yesterday’s prices. The trading session closed with a relatively wide spread up bar, which once again seemed to struggle as it approached the 1.48 price level, and as outlined in Wednesday’s post for the euro vs dollar, this is now a key technical level for the pair on the daily chart and it will be interesting to see whether we have a repeat of the tweezer top which saw prices reverse lower last time at this level. The main fundamental news on the economic calendar for today for the euro vs dollar are the Trade Balance figures in the US, with the figures expected to show a modest rise in imports for the period, up from -32.0B last time to -32.8B this time.  On a very simple level this is generally considered to be good news, as this indicates demand from the US markets from higher imports, however, many economist believe this may only be a temporary spike due to petroleum and cars, and with last weeks Non Farm Payroll data still fresh in the memory, the outlook for the US economy remains the same and will continue to look fragile until we see a series of consistently solid data.   With very little fundamental news next week of any note, the markets may take a breather so we may see a period of consolidation in the next few days, and with the 1.48 price level proving to be obstinate, then we may have to wait a few more days for the breakout higher and our initial target of 1.50 for the euro vs dollar pair.

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