Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 31st March 2009

Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 31st March 2009

This morning’s rally in the euro vs dollar pair was not wholly unexpected given yesterday’s candle of a small hammer which followed the wide spread down bar of last Friday.  With buying pressure clearly entering the market in the evening session of yesterday even this morning’s worse than expected figures from Europe have failed to dent the euro’s rise.   From a technical perspective we are still below the 9 and 14 day moving averages and as such it is too early to draw any firm conclusions from this morning’s move.  We may see some reaction in the euro vs dollar when the Chicago PMI figures are released along with the CB Consumer Confidence numbers.  The Chicago PMI figures are actually released 3 minutes early to subscribers of Kingsbury International and any early market reaction is generally as a result of trades made by these subscribers.

As the G20 meeting draws closer the markets will tend to focus on any news item which is leaked or otherwise whilst simultaneously eschewing the fact that the whole process is no more than a white elephant as individual countries have already decided on their own course of action to deal with the global recession.  The whole summit has the “something must be done” feel about it – although what that “something” is no one knows and even less likely to agree.  However, as traders we just observe and act accordingly.

My trading suggestion for today is perhaps to wait until after the fundamental news releases to see if the euro rally is likely to continue, as any trading opportunities for today will be limited to looking for small positions in the shorter time frames, such as on the 10 min chart, which in the last hour has produced 2 bullish engulfing signals for a nice trade. As I write there is a shooting star forming following the latest news in the US which could be a nice top reversal position to take!

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