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Euro vs Dollar – 4th March 2009

Euro Dollar 4th March 2009 - Daily Candle Chart

The falling wedge pattern continues, but it is so painful to watch! Yesterday saw another attempt to rally, with the high of the day failing to penetrate the 9 day moving average and falling back as a result to form another candle with a long upper shadow. With all the moving averages pointing lower, we will just have to be patient, and wait for the breakout which will inevitably come in due course. I was hoping that yesterday’s speech by Ben Bernanke might have had some effect, but in reality very little happened. As you will see from the daily post on the euro to dollar site, the main fundamental news today is the release of the ADP figures, so again I am hoping that we see some volatility enter the market later.

Based on the technical analysis, my advice remains the same as it has been for the last few weeks. and that is – to stay out, until we see a clear signal that we can trade, either in the daily or weekly candle chart. If we seeĀ  a strong move lower today through the current support level at 1.2500, then we could see prices fall fast to the next level in the 1.2100 region, but until we see a confirmed breakout, nothing can be taken for granted. All the fundamental news is covered for you in the economic calendar, or in the latest currency news on video.