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Euro vs Dollar 29 March 2010

Friday’s short squeeze higher in the euro vs dollar chart duly occurred with the pair ending the trading session and the week with a relatively wide spread up candle which closed fractionally the USD1.34 level.  The squeeze has continued in this morning’s early London session but given the lack of any significant fundamental economic releases today expect prices to drift in a narrow trading range somewhere around the USD1.35 level.   With the price congestion now above and with the three shorter term moving averages coming into play, any rally is likely to be short lived and USD1.355 would seem to be the realistic top for such a move.  Given the longer term bearish picture for the euro vs dollar any squeeze set ups should be viewed as opportunities to open further short positions with the expectation of a much deeper move lower in due course.  Our initial medium term target still remains USD1.30 with USD1.25 a realistic longer term goal.

With Easter fast approaching this week is likely to be a difficult one for trading given the paucity of fundamental news in Europe and coupled with an interesting day on Friday where we have the monthly Non Farm Payroll data against the backdrop of a national holiday throughout much of Europe.  This unusual combination could provide us with some interesting trading opportunities.  Although all of the  fundamental news in Europe  this week has been designated as level 2 or below, markets are still conscious that the Greek debt problems have yet to be resolved & could spread to other Club Med countries.

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