Euro vs Dollar Chart 26 March 2010

Yesterday’s doji candle on the daily euro vs dollar, reflected the apparent resolution of the Greek sovereign debt problem and brought to a temporary halt the relentless slide of the eurodollar.  As a result we can expect to see the pair move higher in the short term, partly due to the market’s relief that some positive action will be taken, and partly due to the technical formation of this potential turning point.  Whilst we can expect to see a small rebound or short squeeze higher this is unlikely to gather any great momentum given the deep price congestion now above and USD1.3550 is probably the upper limit for such a squeeze.  With all four moving averages pointing sharply lower the picture for the euro vs dollar still remains heavily bearish in the medium term with USD1.30 the next pause point in the downwards trend.   Any short squeeze higher should be seen as an opportunity to open further short positions for the next downwards leg.

The main focus for fundamental news in Europe still remains on day 2 of the EU Economic Summit which will no doubt continue to concentrate on the debt problems of Greece & the other Southern Med economies, so provided there are no shocks or surprises expect further euro strength today.  Meanwhile in the US there are only 2 items of second tier news, both of which are revisions of previous announcements and therefore we can expect a relatively quiet day for the eurodollar.

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Eurodollar News :

EU+IMF rescue package agreed for Greece

Is US debt at saturation point?