Euro vs Dollar Chart - EUR vs USD Daily Chart 11th January 2010

Euro vs Dollar Chart - EUR vs USD Daily Chart 11th January 2010

Friday’s non farm payroll figures failed to deliver the much needed boost for the US dollar and indeed were so far below expectation that the euro vs dollar opened significantly gapped up this morning.  Indeed many in the market had been forecasting that the number to be positive for the first time in two years, but this was not to be, and as a result dollar weakness has returned with a vengeance.   It has to be remembered that December’s dollar rally was against a backdrop of very thin market conditions and banks squaring their year end positions.  Technically the recent sideways price action for the euro vs dollar now resulted in a significant platform of potential support and given Friday’s fundamental news, we could now see the euro vs dollar claw back a degree of lost ground from December’s sharp sell off.  The key technical level for any longer term recovery is USD1.47 and should this be breached then we could see an attempt to break through the deep congestion established in November in the USD1.48 to USD1.51 price region.  Given the gapped up open at the start of this week a move higher seems likely in the short term and with negative sentiment towards the US having resumed the eurodollar may be a major beneficiary.

This week’s fundamental news for the eurodollar is dominated this week by the ECB rate decision on Thursday which should see rates kept on hold at 1% and for the US we have the Core CPI data on Friday.  Other items for the US are the unemployment claims and retail sales on Thursday with the UoM Confidence Index on Friday.

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