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Euro versus Dollar Trend 3 Dec 2009

Euro vs Dollar Chart 2 Dec 2009

A day of indecision and uncertainty for the euro dollar yesterday, as the market hovered below the 1.5150 price level once again, and ended the trading session with a narrow spread doji candle with small wicks to both top and bottom, and marginally lower on the day. Despite this rather negative day, the currency pair continue to remain firmly above all three moving averages, suggesting once again that the bullish sentiment remains intact for the time being, but with the Non Farm Payroll data due for release tomorrow, and the ECB interest rate decision (consensus is that it remains at 1%) we should see some activity today.  It was interesting to note that yesterday’s ADP figures ( the pre-cursor to the NFP) came in worse than expected but this news seems to have had little effect on the pair as the market’s energies seem to be building up to today and tomorrow.  From a technical perspective the euro dollar chart remains bullish, but until we see a clear break and hold above the 1.5150 price level, then we do need to be cautious in our trading, however once this occurs, then we can expect to see the euro dollar move towarsd our short term target of 1.52 followed by the 1.55 level thereafter.

In addition to the interest rate decision from the ECB and accompanying statement we also have final services PMI figures for Europe (expected unchanged at 53.6), revised Europewide GDP (also expected unchanged at 0.4%) and Retail Sales for Europe which are expected to come in at 0.2%, up from a previous of -0.7%.  Meanwhile the most important items of fundamental news for the US include the unemployment claims which are expected to show a further increase to 479k, the ISM non manufacturing PMI which is expected at 51.6 (up from a previous of 50.6) as well as testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  This appearance by Ben Bernanke before the Senate Banking Committee concerns his nomination for a second term as Chairman of the Fed and is in two parts: a prepared statement followed by a question and answer session which is almost guaranteed to lead some heavy market volatility.  All in all a great day for trading!

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Support & Resistance the Euro Dollar :

S1: 1.5030   R1: 1.5107

S2: 1.4992   R2: 1.5147

S3: 1.4953   R3: 1.5184