Dollar vs Euro Chart 19 Oct 2009

Dollar vs Euro Chart 19 Oct 2009

The euro vs dollar continues to struggle to breach the 1.50 price level, but my feeling is that this will almost certainly be achieved today, and once this has occurred, we should see the currency pair surge higher and on towards our initial targat of 1.55 in the short to medium term. Yesterday’s candle added some weight to this analysis, ending the trading session higher but more importantly with a deep lower wick to the lower body which found suport from the 9 day moving average, indicating that the bullish sentiment remains firmly established for the euro vs dollar pair. Indeed with the dollar index showing such weakness and continuing to slide ever lower, there is only one way to trade the major’s at present and that is to continue to sell the US dollar.

With only the German PPI data in Europe of fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe this morning (it came in at -0.5% against a forecast of 0.0%) the forex market will be evaluating the US data which started with Building Permits which came in at 0.57m versus a target of 0.59m.  Next PPI came in -0.6% against a forecast of 0.1%.  The Core PPI number also came in below expectation at -0.1% against a target of 0.1%.  So far all data indicating that inflation is still some way off with the spectre of deflation still very much a problem.   The Housing Starts number too came in below forecast at 0.59m instead of 0.62m.  The final item for the US is a speech from FOMC Member Warsh who is due to participate in a panel discussion about the financial crisis.  You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.