Euro Dollar Daily Chart - 9th April 2009

Euro Dollar Daily Chart - 9th April 2009

Yesterday’s daily candle on the euro vs dollar chart has provided some interesting talking points for us to consider in our technical analysis of the pair moving forward, and can I at this point answer several of the emails I have had in the last few hours enquiring as to whether this is a “hammer” candle.  The short answer to this question is no, for the simple reason that for a hammer candle to provide us with the required level of risk/reward it must appear after a long bearish move of which a two candle move does not constitute this in any way shape or form.   In addition the candle also has an upper wick which negates the true effect of a hammer which should have the smallest possible wick above with the longest possible shadow below and a narrow body.  In summary therefore, for a hammer candle to have meaning and provide us with a valid trading signal it must appear at the bottom of a long bearish move.  So what does yesterday’s candle tell us?  First the high of the day bounced off the 9 day moving average suggesting that the bearish tone remains in place, but this needs to be countered by the fact that the low of the day bounced off a strong support region immediately below, so overall an indecisive day with a struggle between the bulls and the bears for supramacy with a doji candle being the result.

Given today’s thin markets as traders wrap up in advance of the long Easter weekend we cannot expect any significant moves in the market today and this morning’s trading is symptomatic with a failed attempt at breaking through the 9 day moving average once again with prices falling in the late morning session.   I have covered the fundamental news relating to the euro vs dollar in the eurodollar site and we are likely to see a lacklustre to the trading week.  Next week could be very different with the US corporate earning season getting into full swing and this could well trigger a strong move in the US dollar, particularly if results and earnings are as dire as expected.  My trading suggestion for today is step aside.

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