Euro to Dollar 15 Oct 2009

Euro to Dollar 15 Oct 2009

The euro vs dollar continued its upward journey yesterday, but with a muted tone, and ended the trading session marginally higher as it approaches the psychological 1.50 level which was our intial target for the current move. Technically yesterday’s candle was interesting for several reasons, not least of which was the depth of the lower wick to the lower boday, which suggests that whilst there was some selling pressure yesterday, this was absorbed by the euro vs dollar bulls once again, suggesting that the trend will continue in due course, breaking above the 1.50 level, and continuing towards our next target at 1.52. This view is further reinforced by the fact that the low of the day failed to need any support from the 9 day moving average, again indicating that there is strong support for the move higher. With a good platform below, and a sustained and well developed upwards trend, the euro vs dollar looks set to continue higher for some time to come, helped of course by the continued and remorseless weakness in the US dollar, which shows no signs of changing in the short or even medium term. Euro vs dollar bulls should just enjoy the ride!  With weekend ahead expect some position squaring and profit taking.

Today’s items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the euro vs dollar started with the Italian Trade Balance which came in far worse than expected at -1.35b as opposed to a forcast of 2.23b.  A negative number indicating that more goods were imported than exported.  This was followed shortly afterwards by the European trade balance numbers and here too the number came in worse than expected at 1.0b against a forecast of 5.1b.  However, this number has a somewhat muted effect as Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone economy release their own data earlier.  The focus then shifts to the US where the most important item of news is the TIC Long Term Purchases data which measures the balance of domestic and foreign investment, in other words are foreigners still buying US Treasuries.  The forecast number is for 30.1b and if the actual is greater then this may spark some dollar buying.  Other items of news include the Capacity Utilization Rate expected to come in at 69.8%, exactly the same as previous; Industrial Production at 0.1% against a previous of 0.8%; Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment expected at 73.6, marginally better than previous which was 73.5; Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectation and finally the market is still waiting for details of the Federal Budget Balance.  This final set of data has been flagged as tentative since Wednesday.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.