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Euro Dollar Trend 12 Nov 2009

Euro vs Dollar Chart 11 Nov 2209

With the major US markets closed yesterday in observance of Veteran’s Day, the euro vs dollar pair traded sideways in a relatively tight trading range, and ended the day as a shooting star candle, which once again tested the 1.50 price region, but fell back in later trading, and leaving us with a bearish candle overall.  Indeed, following on from the potential hanging man candle of Tuesday, this has confirmed that the market is now in a short term bearish phase, and we may see a fall in the euro dollar in the short term, before it makes a further attempt to breach the 1.50 price handle in due course.  Yesterday’s analysis, however, must be seen against the backdrop of thin holiday market volumes and therefore treated with some caution as we can often receive conflicting or unreliable signals as a result.   With plenty of clear water to the three moving averages below, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish, but as outlined above in the short term we may see a reversal lower, much the same as occured in late October and early November for the euro vs dollar pair.

There is little fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe other than the ECB Monthly Bulletin and Industrial Production figures which came in at 0.3% (below the expected 0.6%) while in the US the market will look at the unemployment claims and crude oil inventories.  The former is expected at 512k (same as previous) while the crude oil inventories are expected to show a build in the region of 200k barrels.  The market can also look forward to speeches from both Trichet and Geithner.  Indeed with this week’s absence of hard economic data there have been a number of pronouncements regarding the current state of the US dollar from the likes of Geithner and the Chinese.  However, the question is, of course, whether the market is listening or even believes the rhetoric.  You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.

Support & Resistance for Euro vs Dollar:

S1:  1.4939    R1:  1.5035

S2:  1.4898    R2:  1.5090

S3: 1.4843     R3:  1.5131