Euro Dollar - EUR/USD Daily FX Chart 7th May 2009

Euro Dollar - EUR/USD Daily FX Chart 7th May 2009

Yesterday’s candle epitomised the euro dollar pair as it waited for today’s raft of important fundamental news on the economic calendar, ending the day as a long legged doji with virtually no body and suggesting indecision and uncertainty in the daily chart.  Ahead of the ECB interest rate decision, US employment numbers and the long awaited bank stress test report, the euro dollar has followed a very similar trading pattern this morning with very little movement and remaining confined to a tight trading range.    The key for today will not be whether the ECB cuts interest rates as this is widely expected, but far more importantly what is included in the text of any related statement associated with the release.  In simple terms any suggestions that the eurozone may be adopting a more creative approach to managing the downturn in the economy using quantitative easing measures, could spook the market and send the euro lower as a result, whilst avoiding such references may be viewed as a positive signal that the worst is over.  I am afraid on this occasion I have no firm guidance to offer as the statement could go either way and as a result be replicated in the movement of the euro dollar.  With all 3 moving averages suggesting a move higher then this would seem to be the most probable direction, particularly as the low of yesterday, and of this morning has bounced neatly off the intertwined 9 and 14 day moving averages suggesting that prices are hold firm at present.

To move onto the bank stress tests which are more of an exercise in confidence building as no one (and I repeat no one know) really knows how to value the toxic assets with even the IMF having to re-assess the figure to $4 trillion.  Therefore, the results will first impact the equity markets which if they react badly and become risk averse should trigger a positive move to the US dollar.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details of an excellent ECN broker who provide innovative and dynamic trading coupled with a terrific array of daily videos and charts.