euro vs dollar - daily fx chart 18th may 2009

euro vs dollar - daily fx chart 18th may 2009

Friday’s candle ended the week with a wide spread down bar largely as a result of weaker than expected fundamental news in Europe, particularly for Germany where the GDP figures at -3.8% were considered alarming by many market commentators, and suggestive of problems throughout Europe in many of the weaker EU member states.  In addition France and Italy produced poor numbers, and the markets are now beginning to wake up to the realisation that Eastern Europe is an accident waiting to happen, and could destabalize the Euro dramatically in the next few months.

The daily chart for the euro dollar is particularly interesting at present and we could be witnessing a tipping point for the currency pair given that we had two consecutive bearish signals during the week.  The first of these was on Wednesday when we had a bearish engulfing candle over the previous day, followed on Friday by a second bearish engulfing pattern which closed below the 9 day moving average.  Of increasingly significance is the failure to penetrate the resistance level at 1.37 which in March produced a reversal which eventually bottomed at the 1.29 level before recovering.  If these signals are confirmed then we could see a reversal to this level once again and if that area fails to hold then possibly a move to re-test the 1.25 price point once again.  With precious little fundamental news on the economic calendar either for Europe or for the US today, it is unlikely that the euro dollar pair will do anything other than oscillate in a relatively tight trading range, and we must wait until tomorrow before considering any intra-day trading opportunities.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.