Euro vs Dollar Daily Candle Chart-15th May 2009

Euro vs Dollar Daily Candle Chart-15th May 2009

From a technical perspective the euro dollar is now at an extremely interesting and delicate point on the daily chart, and any trading decisions for the pair will have to be made with a great deal of circumspection and tight money management criteria, as the next few days could set the tone for the forthcoming weeks.  The first issue is whether the current resistance at 1.37  is likely to become a solid barrier to any further progress in the euro vs dollar as we saw in early to mid March, or whether this is simply a staging post and the market taking a breather before breaking out and moving on to re-test the 1.40 price point and above.  Secondly, is the importance (or otherwise) of the strong bearish engulfing signal of Wednesday, which in combination with the above resistance level, could provide sufficient momentum for a sustained reversal much the same as we saw in March.  The key to this conundrum will partially be resolved if this bearish signal is confirmed, as seems likely at present, but should this not be the case, and prices break above 1.37 in a sustained move then we can be sure that the bullish tone will prevail.

The main items of fundamental news on the economic calendar in Europe this morning were predominantly bad news for the euro, particularly in Germany where the GDP figures shocked the market by coming in at -3.8% against a target forecast of -3%, suggesting not only that the German economy is in far worse shape than had been first thought, but that all other member states are now also likely to show worsening figures.  Meanwhile in the US we have both CPI and core CPI figures due up shortly along with the Empire State Manufacturing Index as well as a host of other data including TIC data, Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment figures, all of which are covered on the economic calendar for you.  My trading suggestion for today is to step aside and wait for either of the above signals to be confirmed before entering any further trades.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.