EUR USD Daily Candle Chart - 12th March 2009

EUR USD Daily Candle Chart - 12th March 2009

The surprise rise in equity markets is the reason many analysts are giving for the Euro gains of yesterday which completely contradicted the fundamental news released in Germany in the morning when factory orders came in at a dreadful -8% and yet the Euro still rose.  Whilst yesterday’s candle finished up on the day it still failed to finish above the 40 day moving average and the bearish tone remains in place with further sideways consolidation expected over the next few days.  As I have repeated many times in this commentary only a decisive break beyond the 1.33 region and above or a deep move below the 1.2450 region may confirm the start of any significant trend.  In the meantime I expect the very unstable “falling wedge” pattern to continue.

It is interesting to note that in this morning’s trading session that the high of the day, so far, has failed to outperform yesterday’s high and whilst breaching the 40 day average once again it has fallen back below this level.  With so much fundamental news on the radar and the illogicality of market moves anything could happen today.

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