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Euro Dollar – 3rd March 2009

Euro vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 3rd March 2009

The euro dollar shows no signs of breaking out of it’s consolidation range just yet, although with interest rate decisions in Europe and the monthly circus of the NFP figures, I am hopeful that the fundamental news this week, might just inject some volatility into the currency, along with several others that have been trading sideways for some time. Following a brief attempt at a rally this morning, prices have fallen back again, and now look set to fall further, although this afternoon we have Bernanke speaking in Washington so anything could happen!!

Yesterday’s candle was a gap down to form a morning star, which can often be the first signal of a reversal, particularly after a long down trend, but in this case I’m afraid we have to discount this candle, as we are simply range trading. The only interesting point to note from this morning so far, as you can see on the live currency charts, is that the high of the day has failed to penetrate the 9 day moving average, suggesting we are heading lower in the short term, a view reinforced by the moving averages and falling wedge pattern now forming in the chart which I have shown for you this morning.

My trading advice remains the same – stay out until we see some clear signals in the daily or weekly candle charts to provide some direction for our trades. In the mean time keep an eye on the economic news, and the latest currency news on the new video reports which are updated twice daily.