Euro Dollar Daily Chart - 14th April 2009

Euro Dollar Daily Chart - 14th April 2009

With most of Europe closed both last Friday and yesterday for the Easter break trading volumes have been very thin and partially responsible for the euro vs dollar of the last two days, with Monday’s wide spread up bar being particularly unexpected and out of balance with the market dynamic.  Whilst Monday closed back above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, given market circumstances, I would be extremely cautious in using this as any firm signal of a bullish trend, and indeed in early trading this morning we have seen a fall in prices back below these two averages.  The short term technical picture is now starting to create a flag pattern on the daily chart and should this continue we could see a breakout with momentum in due course.  This may well be triggered during the week as the earning season in US equities gets into full swing, and possibly even today with a raft of economic and fundamental news items being released for the US markets, with no data to counterbalance it in Europe.  I have covered these items in the euro to dollar site.

Euro To Dollar - Hourly Candlestick Chart 14th April 2009

Euro To Dollar - Hourly Candlestick Chart 14th April 2009

My trading suggestion for today is to wait for the release of retail sales figures and PPI data in the US as well as the open of the equity markets to try and establish a short term direction for this afternoon’s trading, looking for suitable trading positions in the shorter timeframes with a bias to the short side.  For example having looked at the hourly chart we now have a strong resistance level in place marginally above the 1.3300 region and with prices below both the 9 and 14 hour moving averages, and having passed through the above resistance to the left of the chart I would suggest a short position constitutes a good risk trade.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news, latest currency news and live charts by simply following the appropriate links.  I have also included information on an excellent ECN broker.